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The achievements of Bangladesh are particularly eye-catching because the world has given so little attention to the country. Driven by the textile industry, a classic start-up industry with low labor costs, Bangladesh's growth rate has steadily accelerated to more than 6%. It is currently the second largest garment exporter in the world. The powerful growth gear began to turn. These textile mills employ millions of young women, empowering them, promoting rural families to invest in education and generating demographic dividends.
The growth of these new manufacturing centers is one of the most exciting changes in the global economy. They provide a new consumer goods market that offers tremendous opportunities for investors and a way to lift millions of people out of poverty. However, on the occasion of the take-off in Bangladesh, people have doubts about whether other centers can keep up.
Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard University, discovered the premature collapse of manufacturing in a poor country: in these countries, the level of development achieved when factories disappeared was much lower than in Europe and the United States. From the perspective of output and employment, he graphically depicts the industrial decline in parts of South America, Africa and Asia since the 1980s. This is bad news for developing countries. As Roderick pointed out, manufacturing drives productivity. It is difficult to get rich without manufacturing.
Since the 1960s, Asian economies have sometimes been compared to “goose geeseâ€. When Japan climbs up within the manufacturing value chain (such as entering the electronics sector), Taiwan or South Korea can enter the textile market left by Japan. The result is a step-by-step development like migratory migratory birds. But if automation and robotics can now even compete with the cheapest workforce, then these opportunities will never show up. Developing countries will be forced to find a new growth model that relies on services, or they will fall into the situation of always exporting commodities.
Such concerns are wrong. More likely, Bangladesh indicates that a poor country will start a new wave of industrialization; eventually this industrialization will be transmitted to sub-Saharan Africa.
United Nations (UN) researchers have confirmed that in the general developing economies, the share of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs has declined. But they found that the developing economies as a whole, their share of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs is at a record level. In other words, not the current manufacturing sector is declining or robots occupy all manufacturing jobs. Rather, all manufacturing industries are increasingly concentrated in one place, leading to a decline in industry in all other regions. This place is of course China. The geese tried to fly over China to migrate elsewhere, but was shot down by China’s huge comparative advantage in the manufacturing field.
If other manufacturing countries want to grow, they must replace China, a big industrial country. The experience of Bangladesh shows that it is possible now. Chinese factories have invested heavily in automation and robotics to increase productivity and remain competitive as domestic wages rise. However, we have little reason to believe that China’s effect in doing so will be better than that achieved by the wealthy countries that China replaced in the 1990s.
Robotics has advanced, but fully automated production lines are still extremely expensive and difficult to adjust. For this reason, except in the automotive and electronics industries where production is high enough, the use of robots is rare. In industries such as the apparel industry where customer demand is rapidly changing, robots have to replace skilled workers who are willing to work for a few dollars a day, waiting for decades.
A big determinant is whether China is allowed to die in low-tech industries or try to keep them. China's reduction of the intervention rate and the weakening of the renminbi directly helped the rise of new manufacturing centers. On the other hand, China's extremely high savings rate and investment rate have led to overcapacity and suppressed industrial growth in other regions. Other developing countries should pray that China's economic rebalancing is successful and tilting toward consumption. Nothing can speed up their growth more than this.
If the Chinese no longer produce cheap clothing, but consume more cheap clothing, it will mean the biggest market in history. In the 1980s, China could sell goods to hundreds of millions of wealthy consumers in Europe, the United States, and Japan. Today, there are billions of consumers who buy clothes, shoes and toys. No matter how much automation develops, larger markets will offset their impact.
For the global economy, countries such as Bangladesh have provided new growth and reduced dependence on China. This has an important impact on prices in developed countries. One of the reasons for the low global inflation is the impact of China's entry into the global market. The rise of Bangladesh means that prices will not rise as China's own income increases. There are still many other countries that want to get rich through manufacturing – especially in African countries.
Since the start of the industrial revolution in the mid-18th century, manufacturing has been a path from poverty to prosperity. Although China has embarked on this road and brought a block of congestion, this road is as open as ever. The geese are ready to migrate again.
Opening up a new wave of industrialized Asian new manufacturing centers
Abstract In the past 20 years, Bangladesh has achieved an economic miracle. A few decades ago, the country was once one of the poorest countries in the world, suffering from famine and floods. Today, the country has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. The same is true of Vietnam; Cambodia is close behind. These countries...
In the past 20 years, Bangladesh has achieved an economic miracle. A few decades ago, the country was once one of the poorest countries in the world, suffering from famine and floods. Today, the country has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. The same is true of Vietnam; Cambodia is close behind. The phenomenal growth in these countries shows that the fear of “premature industrialization†is superfluous, and a new generation of manufacturing powers is emerging and beginning to shape the 21st century.