In the first half of the year, the home market was not weak in the off-season, and the peak season was not prosperous.

Home market performance in the first half of the year is sluggish

Qin Zhanxue, executive vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, explained that the performance of the national building materials and home furnishing market remained weak in June, and the BHI index fell again. At this point, the overall performance of the national building materials and home furnishing market in the first half of the year was sluggish, and the cumulative sales of the above-scale building materials and home furnishing stores in the first half of the year decreased by 5.90%.

The analysis believes that with the continuous accumulation of favorable policies in the property market, the overall property market is heating up. However, the trend of BHI has not responded to it. On the one hand, this is related to the lag of the national building materials and home furnishing market affected by the real estate market; on the other hand, 6 The rainy season across the country has had a certain impact on home decoration. This is a glimpse of the 2.9% drop in the popularity index of the BHI sub-index this month. Moreover, it should be noted that the “employment rate index” of the BHI sub-indexes this month has the largest decline, and it has fallen by 33.07 points compared with the same period of last year. It can be seen that the long-term downturn in the market has led to a weakening of the enterprise and a decline in the industry's ability to create jobs.

The market is unlikely to rebound sharply

Qin Zhanxue believes that the trend of BHI in the first half of 2015 was basically similar to that of the same period of last year, and it was below last year. Only BHI in May rose slightly, showing the chill of the market. However, the absolute value of the “Manager Confidence Index” in the BHI sub-index in June was 55.85 (higher than 50 optimistic about the market outlook and below 50, the weak market outlook). Although it is at a low level, the market still has confidence in the future, and the national building materials home market will not Crash.

It is worth mentioning that the BHI in the first half of the year has not peaked compared with previous years, indicating that the market is still shifting towards a market pattern of “not weak in the off-season and not in the peak season”, and the market trend will be more gradual in the future. In the comparison of the half-year trend, it can be found that the rate of decline in BHI is lower than that of the “national housing boom index”, which is in the form of “scissors difference”, indicating that the proportion of building materials and home furnishing industries that rely on stocks to renovate and maintain operations is increasing. Qin Zhanxue believes that the real estate market is still facing large de-stocking pressures in the future. Both supply and demand are becoming more rational, and the possibility of a sharp rebound in the future is less likely.

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