People from all walks of life debated PV "National Six"

On July 15, the State Council promulgated the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The "Opinions" further elaborated the "State Six Articles" proposed by the State Council to stimulate domestic photovoltaic demand, and increased the installed target of photovoltaic power generation in China by 75% on a 20-million-kilowatt basis in 2015, proposing that it will promote the merger and reorganization of photovoltaic companies and be clear for the first time. Electricity price and subsidy mechanism and access threshold for photovoltaics.

The "six photovoltaic countries" are produced under the special background conditions of "photovoltaic" and "photovoltaic" photovoltaics by the United States and Europe, which reflects the country's strong support for the photovoltaic industry.

However, we must also note that from the perspective of the country’s overall economic situation, the government’s aim is to “do not introduce stimulus measures, deleveraging, and structural reforms” and emphasize the role of the market. This is the “six rules for photovoltaic countries”. Put on a mysterious veil.

As a key terminal automation industry, photovoltaics will undoubtedly affect the development of the automation industry. It is worth noting that special comments have been made on the different voices of industry experts, companies, and the media, and they have been thoroughly analyzed on how the “six photovoltaic countries” can promote the development of the industry.

Experts debated and debated 1: Can the grid be able to support unconditional grid connection?

The second article of the “State Six Articles” stipulates that “the power grid companies shall ensure that the supporting power grid and photovoltaic power generation projects are simultaneously built and put into production, and the photovoltaic power generation plans shall be prioritized, and the total amount of power generated shall be acquired”.

Paragraph ** (Researcher of China Institute of Energy Economics): The unconditional support of the power grid is the basic premise for the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. The behavior of power grid companies has a great influence on the development of the photovoltaic industry. However, there are two ambiguities in this policy. First, “PV power generation projects” refers to “distributed power plants” or “large-scale photovoltaic power plants”; second is how to achieve “full-scale acquisition of power generation”.

Ban Guangsheng: “The grid company is an enterprise and it is impossible to unconditionally support the development of the photovoltaic industry. The 'six countries' 'photovoltaic power generation project' mainly refers to the western ground power station, because the distributed power station does not affect the large-scale transformation. The electricity grid facilities. As for the 'full-scale acquisition of electricity generated' unless it is legislated, it is difficult to achieve."

Hong Wei: "In order to prevent the grid from becoming an obstacle to the development of photovoltaics, in addition to restricting them with policies, there are laws that can be followed and laws that respect the objective laws of the economy; on the basis of the law, they respect the different interests of their respective economic independent bodies. Must be set in accordance with the economic environment in accordance with the industrial environment."

Liu Jianxin (Energy expert for the power frontline work): “There are many kinds of restrictive factors for power generation and access to the Internet. This constraint is not entirely artificial, it is not entirely a management factor, and there are technical factors inside. Absorb instability and the grid cannot Operation is actually encouraging self-occupation. If the Internet is difficult, this problem will not change, let alone realize full acquisition."

Debate 2: After the "Golden Sun" fell, how can it be subsidized?

Negate the representatives of the “Golden Sun” subsidy school: Ban Guangsheng “has proved that there is a problem with the “Golden Sun” project. Some companies reformed existing buildings in order to obtain subsidies, or even violated national policies, and violated policies due to lack of regulatory measures. The behavior is not punished and the subsidy is a 'hot' thing."

Affirming representatives of the “Golden Sun” subsidy school: Liang Yuefeng and Wu Xuanzhi, Liang Yuefeng (Director of the Photovoltaic Building Application Committee of the China Construction Metal Structure Association): “The subsidy definitely needs, as a strategic new industry, its development needs the support of the state, subsidies. Policy is an important means to promote the development of this industry, but it is necessary to adjust the current methods and forms of subsidy. The current subsidy method is not conducive to the development of the industry."

Wu Xuanzhi: “The reason for the 'Golden Sun' problem lies in two aspects. On the one hand, it is the bad behavior of some companies, and on the other hand, the weak supervision of the state. In addition, 'Golden Sun' did not do a detailed planning, so many companies Drilling into the loopholes, we must pay attention to details when we discuss the six countries today, and we must also learn the lessons learned from the 'Golden Sun' on the details that will be issued later."

Debate 3: Is the development of technical standards reasonable?

Article 5 of the “State Six Article” is “Supporting the R&D and industrialization of key materials and equipment, and strengthening the construction of photovoltaic industry standards and regulations”.

Paragraph **: "The conventional path for China's development of technology is to engage in a large number of demonstration projects, but this often results in waste of resources and is not conducive to the development of core technologies. If we take the money to invest in special scientific research companies, let them go separately. Scientific research will receive better results."

Wu Xuanzhi: “The government’s documents are down and it is stipulated that only enterprises with a power generation capacity or output exceeding a certain figure are eligible to enter. However, although some enterprises may not be able to do so, they have technology. For example, a thin film company may not produce large quantities, but he There are core technologies. If you just use quantity as a standard, you will get rid of many technology companies."

Liang Yuefeng: “National 6 is only a principle, and the decisive ones are the implementation rules. Those experts scattered among various ministries and associations should be brought together to take into consideration the opinions of the upper, middle and lower reaches of photovoltaic applications, and should be avoided as much as possible. There are policies and there are countermeasures."

Market Performance "National Six" before the introduction: Photovoltaic "winter"

In the first half of this year, foreign "double reverse" and other factors caused a large area loss of domestic photovoltaic listed companies.

According to statistics, as of July 16th, a total of 17 PV concept stock companies announced the first half of 2013 performance forecast, including 5 upstream photovoltaic equipment companies, of which 1 company suffered a loss, and 3 companies had a different degree of net profit year-on-year. In the decline, only one performance has improved.

Overseas listed companies have had a hard time. Zhang Zaibing, global market director of NASDAQ-listed solar power, bluntly stated: “Because of the double opposition, the amount of Europeans has been significantly reduced, the financing of enterprises is difficult, and the capital market is not favored.”

After the introduction of “National Six Articles”: After the New Deal of overseas PV market makers was promoted, overseas funds sought after for the first time for photovoltaic companies, and there was a rare outbreak of photovoltaic panels.

The chief executive of a loss-making photovoltaic company blunts the enthusiasm of commercial and power plant customers for the New Deal. It is mainly due to the increase in the domestic market. This is also a new market for photovoltaic companies to regenerate.

The reporter noted that New Deal pointed out that from 2013 to 2015, the annual average installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was about 10 GW, and by 2015, the total installed capacity was 35 GW or more. The above-mentioned secretaries told reporters: “The total installed capacity in 2012 was only 5 GW,” but he also worried that whether such a large amount can be achieved.

“Half of 2013 has already passed. To achieve a total installed capacity of 35 GW or more in 2015, this means that it needs to increase more than three times in three years.” The above-mentioned director secret said.

Zhang Hanbing believes that the new installed capacity should not be generated in housing construction. “In the country, unlike Japan and the United States, the majority of residences are villas, and domestic buildings are high-rise buildings. It is very difficult to achieve rooftop power generation.”

After investigation, the reporter found that many photovoltaic companies will focus their future vision on commercial and power station systems. “This is the future big customer,” said one photovoltaic industry source. However, this person also frankly said: "Commercial customers are very difficult to negotiate, the lack of financial strength do not do, there is a strong photovoltaic companies can not get in general, and the domestic also involves grid technology and other issues, there is no detailed introduction."

Waiting for or issuing a price subsidy policy in August The reporter learned that after the expansion of domestic production capacity, more photovoltaic companies are waiting for a new price subsidy policy.

In mid-March of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a draft of the “Notice on Perfecting the Power Generation Price Policy”. The large-scale ground power stations will be divided into four types of areas according to the lighting conditions, and they will implement a benchmark electricity price of 0.75 yuan to 1 yuan/degree respectively. The subsidy for self-use of part of the distributed power generation is 0.35 yuan/kWh. After the news was exposed, the industry generally pointed out that subsidies were significantly lower than expected.

An executive of a photovoltaic listed company disclosed that the subsidy policy released in August was more than expected.

From the perspective of the media, the introduction of this policy has created a breeze for the PV industry that is currently in a predicament. However, the actual driving effect depends on the introduction of follow-up policies such as electricity prices, subsidy standards, and grid-connected rules.

Electricity price and subsidy policy are extremely important factors in stimulating demand. Before the “Opinions” were issued, the electricity price and subsidy policy had been unclear, but the subsidy delivery time lags behind, which seriously affected the start-up of the domestic photovoltaic market. This "opinion" further subdivides the six countries and proposes a policy of subsidizing distributed photovoltaic power generation in accordance with electricity. The implementation period of on-grid tariffs and subsidies is based on the principle of twenty years. In addition, the “Opinions” also improved the payment methods and procedures for subsidy funds. For photovoltaic power stations, there is a monthly settlement of photovoltaic power generation and power generation companies that have been established by the State Grid in accordance with government regulations or after tendering.

However, the Sixth Article proposed in the “Opinions” still needs to be implemented and refined. Only the electricity price and subsidy standards will be issued, and the industry will be able to identify investment returns.