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China's manufacturing PMI hit a 28-month low in June
In June 2011, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing had a PMI of 50.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The index continues to remain above 50%, reflecting that the current economy continues to grow, but the growth rate is still continuing. From the perspective of each sub-index, only the finished goods inventory index has risen by 1 percentage point, and the rest of the indices have declined to varying degrees. Among them, the production index, new order index, backlog order index, purchase volume index, purchase price index, raw material inventory index fell more than 1 percentage point, especially the purchase price index fell the most, reaching 3.6 percentage points. In the 20 industries this month, 12 industries including electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing have reached more than 50%; 8 chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, textile industry, transportation equipment manufacturing, etc. The industry is below 50%. In terms of regions, the east and west are higher than 50%; the middle is lower than 50%. From the product type, the consumer goods category enterprises are higher than 50%; the raw materials and energy, intermediate goods and production finished goods enterprises are less than 50%. In response to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in June, special analyst Zhang Liqun said: "The PMI index continued to fall back in June, indicating that the future economic growth rate may continue to decrease. The main reason is due to inventory adjustment. The purchase price index in June was significantly lower. The raw material inventory index also decreased, indicating that inventory adjustments based on changes in inflation expectations have begun and will affect economic growth. Since inventory adjustments are short-term, if only the economic downturn is caused, it is not expected to be deep or long-lasting. The key is to pay attention to the three major demand trends of investment, consumption and export, and its impact on economic growth will be even greater. At present, demand growth is generally stable, and economic growth will not be deeply adjusted.†The new order index continues to fall. This month's new order index was 50.8%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. In 20 industries, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing industries have reached more than 50%; non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing 11 industries such as medical doctors are less than 50%. From the regional perspective, the east and west are higher than 50%; the middle is lower than 50%. From the perspective of product types, consumer goods companies are above 50%; raw materials and energy, intermediates and manufacturing manufactured goods are below 50%. The production index continued to fall. The production index for this month was 53.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 10 industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and tobacco products industry are higher than 50%; chemical fiber manufacturing and rubber and plastic products industry are located at 50%; special equipment manufacturing, papermaking 9 industries such as printing, cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing are less than 50%. In terms of regions, the eastern, central and western regions are all above 50%, with the lowest in the central region, at 50.8%. According to the product type, the raw materials and energy, and the finished products for production are less than 50%; the intermediate products and consumer goods enterprises are higher than 50%. The import index and the new export order index fell. The import index for this month was 48.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. In 20 industries, 11 industries including beverage manufacturing, paper printing and cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, communications equipment computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries are higher than 50%; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, general equipment manufacturing, and chemistry Nine industries such as raw materials and chemical products manufacturing are less than 50%. The new export order index for this month was 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 11 industries, including paper printing, cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, beverage manufacturing, and tobacco products, are higher than 50%; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering 9 industries such as industry are below 50%. The employee index fell back. The employee index for this month was 50.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries including beverage manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are higher than 50%; general equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing 7 industries are below 50%. The purchase price index continued to fall. The purchase price index for this month was 56.7%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industries, among the 20 industries, the textile industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical fiber manufacturing and rubber plastic products industry are less than 50%, and the remaining 17 industries are higher than 50%; among them, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, medicine More than 60% of manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing, and special equipment manufacturing. In terms of regions, the eastern, central and western regions are all above 50%, with the highest in the west, reaching more than 60%. In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate goods, consumer goods and manufactured goods are all above 50%, of which raw materials and energy, consumer goods companies are higher, reaching more than 58%. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI Description The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Survey draws 820 sample companies from national manufacturing companies and conducts monthly surveys of corporate purchasing managers. The scope of the investigation involves 28 major categories of manufacturing in the National Economic Industry Classification GB/T4754-2002, and each industry allocates sample enterprises according to their scale. The questionnaire covered 11 issues including production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices, raw material inventory, employees, and supplier delivery time. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer. PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion index classification indices. The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, right The number is 10%. PMI is one of the internationally accepted macroeconomic monitoring indicator systems and plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. Usually 50% is the cut-off point of economic strength, PMI is higher than 50%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy; below 50%, it reflects the economic recession of the manufacturing industry.