I. Main characteristics of China's alumina imports from January to July this year (A) The monthly import volume was the lowest since October 1999, and the average import price was the second highest since January 1995. In July of this year, China’s alumina imports were 59,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 78.2% and a decrease of 18.2% compared with the previous month. Monthly imports fell for seven consecutive months, the lowest since October 1999. In July, the average alumina import price was US$524.2 per ton, up 50.9% year-on-year, and up 6.2% month-on-month. The average price of imports rose for nine consecutive months, which was the lowest since June 1995 at US$546.2 per ton in June 2006. The second highest level.
(2) The import of general trade is the main method, and the import proportion of special customs supervision regions increases. From January to July, China imported 754,000 tons of alumina by general trade, a decrease of 59.5%, accounting for 70.1% of the total alumina imports in the same period (same below), and the percentage decreased by 0.9% from the same period of last year. During the same period, the import of 321,000 tons was reduced by 57.6%, accounting for 29.8%, and the proportion increased by 0.4 percentage points.
(3) State-owned enterprises saw the largest drop in imports, while private companies’ share of imports increased. From January to July, China's state-owned enterprises imported 577,000 tons of alumina, a decrease of 62.8%, accounting for 54.6%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points from the same period of last year. During the same period, privately-owned enterprises accounted for 253,000 tons, a decrease of 49%, accounting for 23.6%, and the proportion increased by 4.6 percentage points from the same period of last year; foreign-invested enterprises were 224,000 tons, a decrease of 59%, accounting for 20.8%, which was the same as the same period of last year.
(D) The vast majority of imports come from Australia. From January to July, China imported 1.059 million tons of alumina from Australia, a decrease of 55.3%, accounting for 98.5%, and the proportion increased by 8.1 percentage points over the same period of last year. During the same period, 8,827 tons were imported from Japan, a decrease of 5.8%; 5,274 tons from the EU, a decrease of 25.6%.
(5) The top five importers in the country are Qinghai, Shandong, Ningxia, Jiangsu, and Beijing. From January to July, Qinghai imported 225,000 tons, an increase of 3.2%; Shandong, Ningxia, Jiangsu, and Beijing were 184,000, 149,000, 130,000, and 110,000 tons, respectively, down 37.4%, 60.7%, and 59% respectively. And 72.3%. The aforesaid five provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) imported alumina totaled 798,000 tons, accounting for 74.2%.
2. The main reasons for the fall in China's alumina imports from January to July this year were (A) The increase in domestic supply capacity led to a drop in imports. According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau, from January to July this year, China's alumina production was 20.46 million tons, an increase of 18.9%, and China's electrolytic aluminum output was 10.19 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year1. According to the input-output ratio of alumina and electrolytic aluminum of 1:2, the domestic alumina market balances supply. As domestic alumina supply capacity continues to increase, import demand further weakens.
(b) Weak downstream demand inhibited alumina demand. July is the traditional off-season automobile consumption. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales increased slightly from January to July this year, with cumulative production and sales of 10.462 million units and 1060 units respectively. Millions of vehicles were slightly increased by 2.3% and 3.2% respectively. In July, the monthly production and sales volume were 1.306 million units and 1.275 million units respectively, which fell by 7% and 11.2% respectively. Demand in the domestic market is weak and the alumina demand is suppressed.
(3) The price of imported alumina continues to rise, and the import power of enterprises is insufficient. At present, China Aluminum's alumina quotation is still maintained at 3,000 yuan per ton, but the price of imported alumina has climbed to 524.2 yuan per ton in July, or about 3,397 yuan per ton, plus various expenses such as freight, alumina imports. The price has clearly surpassed the domestic spot level, resulting in insufficient importation of domestic enterprises.
Third, the current issues of concern and related recommendations It is worth noting that: At present, domestic aluminum prices are both rising. On July 7th this year, LME's intraday aluminium closing price reached the lowest price in the month at 2,476 US dollars per tonne. It then went all the way up to July 26 at US$2,652 per tonne. At the end of July, it fell to US$2,624 per tonne on July 29th. . At the same time, the domestic aluminum prices in Shanghai on July 1 were the lowest point in the month at RMB 17,300 per ton***. Subsequently, the domestic aluminum prices continued to rise due to rising costs and declining inventory, and the closing price on July 28th. The highest point for the month was RMB 18,400 per ton. The weekly inventory of domestic aluminum continued to decline, reaching 255,000 tons on July 1 and 182,000 tons on July 29. The decline in inventory strongly supported the rise in aluminum prices.
China's alumina imports fell from January to July this year
According to customs statistics, from January to July this year, China imported 1.076 million tons of alumina, which was 59% lower than the same period of last year; it was worth 450 million US dollars, down by 50.8%; the average import price was 414.4 US dollars per ton, up 19.8%. .