The international energy consumption center is shifting from west to east, while all countries are studying the development of new energy and low-carbon technologies to combat climate change. Wu Hao, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration, believes that in this new international energy structure, China's energy development presents four major trends, including the further westward energy extraction, the gradual slowing of energy growth, the continuous optimization of energy structure, and the diversification of energy sources. .
The total amount of energy consumed in China last year reached 3.25 billion tons of standard coal, ranking first in the world. Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, believes that the growth rate of energy consumption will slow down in the future, but the total amount will continue to increase. By 2040, 6 billion tons of standard coal may be consumed, and the installed capacity of power generation is currently The 1 billion kilowatts were developed to about 3 billion kilowatts.
He believes that the energy structure at that time will be more optimized, and renewable energy power generation will replace the dominant position of coal power. "It will be based on 300 million kilowatts of nuclear power, with 500 million kilowatts of hydropower as its main source, with 500 million kilowatts of wind power and 1 billion kilowatts of solar power as an important source of power, supplemented by 500 million kilowatts of coal."
According to Ge Zhengxiang, the director of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the State Grid Corporation of China, in the future, China's energy structure will present the characteristics of “clean energy structure, base for energy development, cross-regional energy transfer, and national energy balanceâ€.
“In the future new energy structure, the central position of power will be further highlighted.†Wang Min, deputy general manager of State Grid Corporation of China, believes that with the rapid development of clean energy such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar energy in China, there will be more The more primary energy sources are converted into electrical energy. At the same time, the share of electricity in terminal energy consumption will also continue to rise.
According to a report from the State Grid Energy Research Institute, by 2020, non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, reaching 770 million tons of standard coal, of which 84% of non-fossil energy will be converted to electricity for consumption. With the conversion of coal and natural gas into electricity and promotion of electric vehicles, the share of electricity in terminal energy consumption will gradually increase from 20.9% in 2010 to 27.5% in 2020.
"The generation of electricity through wind and solar energy and the use of electricity to drive automobiles can replace a large amount of fossil fuels. The development of electricity will promote the development of renewable energy sources," said Wu Hao. He also believes that the development of electricity will reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP. Research shows that in China, the percentage of energy consumed in terminal energy consumption increases by one percentage point, and the energy intensity will drop by 6.2 percentage points.
"As energy extraction moves westward, the development of electricity will help realize large-scale cross-regional energy delivery." Zhang Yunzhou, dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that future energy flows will continue to show "from west to east" and "from The overall pattern from north to south, but the distance and number of flows will be significantly expanded, which requires the conversion of more coal, oil and gas and other fossil energy sources into electricity for transportation.
According to the research data, by 2015, the total energy transfer across the country will increase from about 1.2 billion tons of standard coal in 2010 to 1.7 billion tons, of which the total amount of energy transfer across the region will increase from 520 million tons in 2010 to 850 million tons.
Electricity will play a leading role in the new energy structure
Energy officials, experts and scholars said at the “Energy, Economics, and Development†forum held here on the 23rd that electricity will play an increasingly important role in China’s future energy transition.