Economic Expectations Stable to Fluctuant Steel Prices

As steel traders’ willingness to strengthen winter storage and strong cost support continued to rapidly increase steel prices, the steel market remained in the demand off-season. Steel prices rose rapidly and there was no transaction volume as support. There was a risk of callbacks in the latter steel market operation. The steel market will stabilise the fluctuations.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecasting model data, this week (2013.1.21-1.25) the domestic steel market price will stabilise, the long products market will pull up slightly, and the plate market price will fluctuate. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 152.5 points, the average price of steel is around 3970 yuan, and the average volatility is around 20 yuan; Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 166.4 points, up by about 0.2 points; Lange The steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 135.8 points, with a slight adjustment of around 0.2 points.

From the market research of Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the domestic long product market price will increase slightly this week (2013.1.21-1.25), while the plate market price will rise and fall; the raw material market price will rise and fall. The market price of iron ore will drop by 10-20 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will drop by 50 yuan, and the billet market price will rise by 20 yuan.

1. Adjustment of domestic steel market volatility this week In the third week of 2013 (2013.1.14-1.18), the Lange Steel (LGMI) composite price index reached 152.5 points, a week-on-month decrease of 0.48%, and a decrease of 9.05% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 166.2 points, down 0.52% on a week-on-week basis and down 12.41% year-on-year; the LGMI sheet price index was 136 points, down 0.42% on a week-on-week basis and down 3.61% from the same period last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by the market of Lange Steel Information Research Center in the market, the price fluctuations of the main steel products in the second week of 2013 (2013.1.14-1.18) were adjusted and increased compared with last week. Varieties decreased significantly, while flat varieties increased and declines increased significantly. Of these, 7 varieties rose, down 34 from the previous week; 11 were flat and 9 more than last week; 26 products fell, 25 more than last week. The domestic iron and steel raw materials market prices have declined steadily or slightly, the iron ore market price has dropped by RMB 20-70, the coke market price has remained stable, the scrap market price has dropped by RMB 30, and the billet market price has dropped by RMB 90-120.

2. This week, the country’s steel industry has seen a rapid increase in its social steel inventories. The current national steel social inventories have continued to rise for four weeks. The increase in the rate of building materials inventories has accelerated significantly, and the rate at which sheet stocks rise has slowed slightly. According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, on January 18th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 1,301,800 tons, an increase of 441,600 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod society inventory is 1,296,800 tons, up 8.20% from last week; rebar social stocks are 5,260,900 tons, up 3.77% from last week; Panluo's social inventory is 362,900 tons. This was an increase of 2.90% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,244,600 tons, up 3.90% from last week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1,522,500 tons, 0.26% higher than last week; the plate's social inventory The volume was 1,330,200 tons, an increase of 1.24% from last week.

3. This week, the steel market fluctuates and rises. In the third week of 2013 (2013.1.14-1.18), the rebar market experienced a ups and downs of ups and downs. This week's weekly closing price rebounded by 46 points from last week. After a week's unexpected drop in prices, there was still a strong rebound. The main contract this week was 1.309 million lots, an increase of 28,090 lots, and the positions were increased, but the increase in the warehouse was far behind last week.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

In 2012, the total electricity consumption of the society was 4.9591 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%

According to statistics from the Energy Administration website, in 2012, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 4.9591 trillion kWh, an increase of 5.5% over the same period of last year. Among them, the primary industry was 101.3 billion kWh, the secondary industry was 3666.9 billion kWh, and the tertiary industry was 5690. With the amount of billions of kWh, the urban and rural residents have 621.9 billion kilowatt-hours of life. From the perspective of classified electricity consumption, the national industrial electricity consumption was 3,601 billion kwh, of which, the light and heavy industries were 608.3 billion kwh and 29978 billion kwh respectively.

Four ministries and commissions issued energy-saving emission reduction targets The iron and steel industry has a difficult task Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Finance have formulated the “Action Plan for Action on Climate Change in the Industrial Sector (2012-2020)”. According to the plan, by 2015, the national greenhouse gas emission control target will be fully implemented, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of industrial added value will fall by more than 21% compared with 2010. The industrial units in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, and other industries will increase. The value of carbon dioxide emissions fell by 18%, 18%, 18%, 17%, 18%, and 22% respectively over 2010, and the carbon dioxide emissions of major industrial units have been steadily declining, and industrial carbon productivity has increased significantly. The industrial structure has been further optimized, and strategic emerging industries have developed rapidly. A number of low-carbon industrial demonstration parks and low-carbon industrial demonstration enterprises have been established, and a number of low-carbon technologies and products with significant emission reduction potential have been promoted.

The State Council adopted a medium and long-term plan for the construction of major science and technology infrastructure. Premier Wen Jiabao, chairman of the State Council, chaired the executive meeting of the State Council on the 16th to discuss the adoption of the "Mid-term and Long-term Plan for the Construction of National Major Science and Technology Infrastructure (2012-2030)." The direction of development of China's major science and technology infrastructure and key construction priorities during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period are clarified in the next 20 years. In the next 20 years, we must aim at upgrading original innovation capabilities, supporting major technological breakthroughs and economic and social development, and focusing on frontier research of science and technology and major national strategic needs, including energy, life, Earth system and environment, materials, particle physics, and nuclear physics, It focuses on seven scientific fields such as space and astronomy and engineering technology, and accelerates the construction of major science and technology infrastructure in China. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, we selected urgently needed areas for China’s science and technology development, areas with comparative advantages and relatively mature construction conditions, and prioritized the construction of 16 major scientific and technological infrastructures such as subsea scientific observation networks and precision gravity survey research facilities. The meeting called for improving the collaborative innovation and open sharing mechanism, increasing investment, improving the management system, and comprehensively improving the level of major science and technology infrastructure construction and operating efficiency.

National fixed asset investment increased by 20.6% year-on-year in 2012

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2012, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 364,835 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% (a real increase of 19.3% after deducting price factors), and the growth rate fell from January to November. 0.1 percentage points, down 3.4 percentage points from 2011. From a month-on-month basis, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.53% in December.

In terms of sub-sectors, from January to December, the primary industry invested 900.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points higher than that in the first 11 months; the second industry investment was 1,586.7 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2%, and the growth rate fell by 0.9. The percentage of investment in the tertiary industry was 1,975.9 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, and the growth rate was accelerated by 0.2 percentage points. In the secondary industry, industrial investment was 1,5462.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points lower than that in the first 11 months. Among them, the mining industry invested 1,312.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, and the growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points; manufacturing investment 124,971 million yuan, an increase of 22%, the growth rate fell 0.8 percentage points; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry investment of 1653.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%, the growth rate dropped 3.4 percentage points.

The actual value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.3% year-on-year in December 2012

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2012, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.3% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the real growth rate of deducting price factors), which was 0.2 percentage point higher than that in November. From a month-on-month basis, in December, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 0.87% from the previous month. From January to December, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 10.0% year-on-year.

In terms of sub-sectors, in December, the value added of the 41 major categories of industries all increased year-on-year. Among them, the textile industry increased by 10.7%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 12.8%, the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 10.0%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.2%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.6%, and the automobile manufacturing industry. Increased by 6.6%, Railways, Ships, Aerospace and Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing grew by 4.1%, Electrical Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing increased by 10.7%, Computers, Communications and Other Electronic Equipment Manufacturing grew by 15.3%, Electricity, Heat Production and Supply Increased by 6.5%.

Industry News:

The European Union finds that China's iron and steel production enterprises were illegally subsidized. According to reports, on January 15, the European Commission determined that the Chinese government had illegally subsidized domestic iron and steel production companies. The move by the European Union is intended to “pave the way” for imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports. According to the above report, the European Union proposed to impose a countervailing duty with a maximum tax rate of 50% on organic coated steel products imported from China. In fact, after receiving similar complaints last year, the European Commission decided to impose an anti-dumping tariff of up to 58% on Chinese steel companies.

India's hot-rolled stainless steel sheet imposes temporary protection measures. The Ministry of Finance's Ministry of Finance's Central Committee of Customs issued an announcement on January 4, 2013. According to the preliminary findings of the Indian Ministry of Finance's Bureau of Safeguards, the 304 hot-rolled stainless steel originating in China Plate (maximum width 1605 mm), including all austenitic stainless steels containing not less than 6% nickel, chromium, molybdenum and titanium (without the latter two elements), with an ad hoc rate of 20% ad valorem. tax. Temporary safeguard measures The tax levy period is 200 days (unless it is revoked, replaced or revised), effective from the date of publication of the communique.

The Ministry of Commerce issued "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Transformation and Upgrading of the Warehousing Industry

The "Guidance on Promoting the Shifting and Upgrading of the Warehousing Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinion") recently issued by the Ministry of Commerce suggests that the processing and distribution rate will reach 40% within 5 years, and the warehousing service compliance rate will increase to 40%. The total area accounts for 40% of the total area of ​​the warehouse; the level of mechanization, automation, standardization, and informationization of warehousing enterprises has been significantly improved; the turnover rate of commodity inventories has been significantly accelerated, and the ratio of warehousing expenses to circulation costs of commodities in circulation has dropped significantly. Relevant experts said that the country's introduction of policies to support the transformation and upgrading of the warehousing industry is conducive to the norms of the industry and existing companies bigger and stronger.

The "Opinions" pointed out that from 2007 to 2011, the proportion of China's total logistics costs to GDP fell from 18.2% to 17.8%, while the share of storage costs in GDP rose from 5.8% to 6.1%. Accelerate the transformation and upgrade of the warehousing industry, promote the transformation of traditional warehousing enterprises from a single-function storage center to a fully-functional logistics distribution center, change the traditional warehousing type of storage to the modern warehousing of inventory control, and establish a sound logistics distribution system. The important content is an important way to reduce social inventory and improve circulation efficiency. It is necessary to actively guide warehousing companies from being transformed from traditional storage centers to multi-functional, integrated logistics service providers. In terms of services from warehouse rental to warehouse management, inventory control, processing and packaging, sorting and distribution, pledge monitoring, and other multi-functional value-added services development; in the technical aspects of flat stacking, manual operation to the three-dimensional storage, unit operations, mechanization and automation Operational development; in terms of management, from decentralized, extensive operations to lean, standardization and information development.

National crude steel output increased by 3.1% year-on-year in 2012

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2012, the country’s crude steel output was 7,164.40 million tons, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, December crude steel production was 57.66 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year; daily average crude steel production was 1.86 million tons, down from 1.916 million tons in November.

From January to December 2012, the country’s steel output was 95.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Among them, December steel output was 81.38 million tons, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year; daily average steel production was 2.625 million tons, which was lower than the 2.708 million tons in November.

From January to December 2012, the country’s pig iron production was 657.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, pig iron production in 50.89 million tons in December, an increase of 5.0%; average daily pig iron production was 1.642 million tons, down from 1.714 million tons in November.

Average daily production of crude steel rebounded in early January 2013 According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in January was 1.674 million tons, up 3.8% from the previous month. Based on this calculation, the average daily output of crude steel in the first half of January was 1.944 million tons, up by 2.3% over the previous month.

The previous session of the thread ** rose on the 18th, the main contract rose 1.96%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,960 yuan/ton in the morning on the 18th, and then the price started to rise higher after the day's high shock. The daily minimum was 3,952 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4,004 yuan/ton, to close at 4,002 yuan. Compared with the previous trading day (17th), the settlement price rose by RMB 77/t, closing 2,346,678 positions and holding 1,286,920 lots, a decrease of 20,592 contracts.

Downstream demand:

China's automobile production and sales volume has been the world's first for four consecutive years, according to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association. In 2012, the country's automobile production and sales amounted to 19,270,800 and 19,306,400 units, up by 4.6% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, 3.8 and 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate was steadily improving. The production and sales exceeded 19 million vehicles and set a record high, once again setting a new record in the world, ranking fourth in the world for four consecutive years. China's auto production has exceeded 18 million for three consecutive years. China's auto industry has entered a steady stage of development with a relatively high total volume. From the monthly sales situation of auto sales, the highest monthly sales point was in March, with sales of 1,838,600; the lowest point was in July, and the sales volume was 1,379,400. In addition to January and September, the sales for the remaining 10 months were higher than the same period of the previous year. Among them, January was affected by the Spring Festival and September was affected by the situation on the Diaoyu Islands. Overall, this year's car production and sales meet the historical rules. From the perspective of the cumulative growth rate of auto production and sales for the whole year, the accumulative growth rate of auto production and sales shows a trend of increasing month by month and then increasing month by month. In the first four months of this year, the overall performance of automobile production and sales was relatively poor, which was lower than the level of the same period of last year. Cumulative production and sales began to increase from May, and began to increase in July over the same period of the previous year.

Railway infrastructure investment will reach 520 million yuan in 2013. 5200 kilometers of new lines will be put into operation. The 17th National Railway Work Conference will be held on the 17th. In 2013, the national investment in railway fixed assets will reach 650 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20 billion yuan over the actual amount of investment completed in 2012. The new 5,200-kilometer line will be put into operation, and passenger-dedicated lines such as Tianjin Qin, Xibao, Nanjing-Hangzhou and Hangzhou-Ningbo (Ningbo) will be opened during the year. As of the third quarter of 2012, the Ministry of Railways had assets of 4.3 trillion yuan and liabilities of 2.66 trillion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio was 61.81%.

By the end of 2012, the country's railway business mileage reached 98,000 kilometers, ranking second in the world. The operating mileage of high-speed rail reached 9,356 kilometers, ranking first in the world. According to the railway construction plan for the third year after the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the fixed assets investment for the national railways in 2013 was 650 billion yuan, of which 522 million yuan was for capital construction and 5,200 kilometers for the new line.

National real estate development investment increased by 16.2% year-on-year in 2012

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2012, the national investment in real estate development was 7180.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 16.2% over the previous year (a real increase of 14.9% after deducting price factors), and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in January-November, compared to 2011. Fall 11.9 percentage points. Among them, the residential investment was 4.9374 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%. The growth rate fell by 0.5% from January to November, accounting for 68.8% of the real estate development investment.

In 2012, the real estate development enterprises had an area of ​​5,738.18 million square meters of housing construction, an increase of 13.2% over the previous year. The growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage point from January to November. Among them, the residential construction area was 4,286.64 million square meters, an increase of 10.6%. The area of ​​new housing starts was 1,773.34 million square meters, a decrease of 7.3%, which was a 0.1% increase from January to November. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 1,306.95 million square meters, a decrease of 11.2%. The completed area of ​​houses was 99.25 million square meters, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was 6.8 percentage points lower than that in January-November. Among them, the area of ​​residential buildings completed was 790.43 million square meters, an increase of 6.4%.

Excavator and bulldozer sales improved significantly in December 2012 According to statistics, in December 2012, the excavator industry sold 7,105 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.36% and an increase of 6.73% compared with the previous period. Excavator sales in the month of December rebounded in the fourth consecutive month, while the year-on-year decline rate was significantly narrower than the 25.27% in November, becoming the lowest monthly decline year-on-year. Judging from the accumulated data, 115,658 excavators were sold in 2012, a decrease of 34.33% from the same period of last year, and the decline rate has narrowed for seven consecutive months.

In December 2012, the bulldozer industry sold 1,066 units, which was the highest annual sales after the March and April peak seasons. In December, sales increased by 88.34% year-on-year, a 35.25% increase from the previous month and a significant improvement. In December, the export sales volume was 541 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 160.10% and a month-on-month increase of 68.54%. Excluding the export impact, domestic sales in December also had a year-on-year increase of 46.65%. Judging from the accumulated data, a total of 10,222 bulldozers were sold in the year, a decrease of 21.95% from the same period of last year, and the decline rate was further narrowed by 4.98 percentage points from January to November, and narrowed for nine consecutive months.