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Chinese Academy of Sciences: 2013 China's GDP growth rate of 8%
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences launched the 2013 "Blue Book of Economics" in Beijing on the 26th. The report highlights that China's GDP growth for 2013 is projected to be approximately 8%. Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics at the academy, noted that the overall macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable with moderate growth and controlled inflation.
Interestingly, this 8% growth forecast represents a slight downward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous estimate released by the academy in December of the previous year. This adjustment aligns with similar revisions made by international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also reduced their forecasts for China’s economic performance in 2013.
Despite these downward adjustments, most institutions still expect China’s economy to achieve an 8% or higher growth rate this year, reflecting continued confidence in the country’s long-term economic potential.
The Blue Book also provides insights into various macroeconomic indicators for 2013. It predicts that the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment, foreign trade, household income, and consumer prices will rise compared to the previous year. However, it notes that the growth rates of consumption and M2 money supply are expected to decline slightly.
In terms of policy recommendations, the report suggests a shift in macroeconomic strategy from demand-side management to a more balanced approach that integrates both demand and supply-side measures. It emphasizes the need to maintain steady investment growth, optimize the structure of investments, improve efficiency, and promote structural tax cuts. Additionally, the report calls for reforms in the fiscal and taxation systems, maintaining reasonable liquidity in the market, enhancing social financing conditions, and deepening financial reforms.
The Blue Book also highlights that China’s economy has grown at an average rate of 9.8% over the past three decades. It now appears to be transitioning from a period of rapid structural growth to a phase of “structural slowdown.†According to the report, the economic deceleration observed since 2012 is not due to cyclical factors or policy changes, but rather a natural shift in the stage of economic development. This slowdown, however, is seen as providing a solid foundation to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap.â€
Looking ahead, the Blue Book identifies two key “dividends†that could drive future economic growth: the “institutional dividend†and the “social management dividend.†The institutional dividend refers to China’s strong and flexible institutional framework, while the social management dividend reflects the country’s evolving multi-tiered social structure, which helps protect the interests of different groups. These dividends are expected to unlock economic potential and enhance productivity.