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Egg futures return to the rising glass, plummeting over 2%
On the 20th, the overall market trend showed more divergence. Agricultural products saw a recovery in egg futures, while soybeans and oysters were significantly influenced by the National Reserve auction and rising pork prices. Meanwhile, glass futures fell by over 2%, and base metals saw narrowed gains. Analysts noted that concerns over the real estate sector's weak outlook have raised worries about demand for industrial goods like glass, suggesting that industrial products may continue to face pressure in the short term.
Glass futures faced a sharp decline on Tuesday, with the main contract 1405 closing at 1,158 yuan/ton, hitting a new low and falling by 28 yuan or 2.36%. Data revealed that both the new construction area of housing and commercial housing sales in China declined year-on-year this year. In March, the new housing construction area dropped by 25.2%, and commercial housing sales fell by 3.8%. The sharp drop in new housing starts has severely impacted glass demand.
Looking at specific commodity trends, as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, market sentiment remained strong. With previous bird flu concerns still lingering, the tight supply of eggs in the market supported a rebound in futures prices. At the close, the main contract of 1409 closed at 5,266 yuan/500 kg, rising by 84 yuan or 1.52%.
Shanghai copper saw a slight increase, with the main 1408 contract closing at 48,810 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. On the trading floor, copper prices rose slightly but gains were limited. Fundamentally, the northern hemisphere is currently in its peak season for traditional manufacturing, which has boosted copper consumption. However, the focus this week will be on the Fed’s April meeting minutes and China’s May HSBC manufacturing PMI. Expectations are neutral, so caution is advised regarding any copper price rebound. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue its overall upward trend.
Aluminum futures saw smaller gains, with the main contract 1407 closing at 13,125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. Recently, Shanghai aluminum has been moving passively with the rise of surrounding basic metals, but selling pressure remains significant. The current spot price is lagging behind the futures price, with the discount widening gradually. Given high output levels, the gains in Shanghai aluminum are limited.
Dalian palm oil futures adjusted lower, with the main 1409 contract closing at 5,900 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. Overnight oil prices fell, putting pressure on the domestic oil market. Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 20 days of the month came in slightly below market expectations, and China’s imports declined, indicating weaker demand and pressuring the price. Since March, domestic palm oil imports have fallen, and demand has picked up slowly, with port inventories remaining high. In the short term, further adjustment in palm oil is expected.
Soybean oil futures continued to fall, with the main 1409 contract closing at 6,764 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Falling overnight oil prices pressured the domestic soybean oil market. However, with the release of the National Reserve Soybean auction and Malaysian palm oil export data today, the market remained in a wait-and-see mood, which helped limit the price decline. In the short to medium term, the contradiction between domestic oil supply and demand has become more pronounced, and the pattern of "high oil prices but weak demand" is expected to persist, leaving downside risks for soybean oil prices.