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Structural transformation momentum
Import and export growth has stabilized at a low level. Since 2016, due to the continuation of the global trade, the RMB exchange rate has been stable and the growth rate of China's goods trade continues to decline. Since 2016, China has issued a series of policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade and promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade. The decline of major indicators has narrowed from the previous year. If it is denominated in US dollars, due to factors such as the rebound in international commodity prices, the acceleration of imports of energy products, and the increase in import price index, imports and exports fell by 6.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the same period of the previous year; exports fell by 7.5%, and the decline was widened. 4.4 percentage points; imports fell 6.2%, and the decline narrowed by 8.7 percentage points. However, from the perspective of trade volume, according to WTO statistics, China's import and export trade growth since 2017 is the same as the world average growth rate and slightly leading, indicating that China's foreign trade is generally better than the global average.
The structure of export trade is continuously optimized. With the promotion of structural reforms on the supply side and the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy, China’s foreign trade development has continued in the areas of import and export trade structure, major product structure, market diversification structure and trade entity structure since 2016. Optimization and improvement. First, the proportion of general trade continues to increase. Second, the diversification of the international market has steadily advanced. China's exports to other countries in the "BRIC" countries and along the "Belt and Road" have grown rapidly. Third, the proportion of private enterprises' exports has further increased. The private economy is an important part of China's national economic development. It plays an important role in the development of the socialist market economy. It has become a new force for promoting foreign trade growth and an important carrier for promoting trade upgrading and realizing trade products, models and business innovation. The increase in the proportion of private economy and trade means that the innovation capability, activity level and quality efficiency of China's foreign trade sector continue to increase. The fourth is the speed of export of large sets of equipment. As the world's largest manufacturing country, China's strategy of "going out" and the "One Belt, One Road" strategy have promoted equipment manufacturing and high-addition in the process of large-scale foreign investment, overseas construction, and international capacity cooperation. Value product exports. Fifth, the new model of foreign trade is actively developing. Cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade, and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises continued to maintain a relatively fast growth trend, and the “production-service†one-stop supporting industry alliance model began to take shape. These emerging models are becoming a new growth point in the field of foreign trade.
Energy products and high-tech products are imported faster. Since 2016, on the one hand, the domestic economy has been running steadily, driving the increase in imports of bulk commodities. At the same time, due to the oversold rebound in international commodity prices, China's import price index has improved slightly, resulting in faster growth of major energy imports. On the other hand, domestic industry and consumption upgrades are gaining momentum, driving demand for high-tech products, high-end consumer goods and daily necessities. Since 2016, China's imports of mechanical and electrical products have increased by 1.9%, and imports of high-tech products such as electronic technology, computer integrated manufacturing technology and life science technology have increased year on year. This shows that under the background of a general slowdown in international demand, China, as a responsible global trade power, has actively expanded the domestic market and contributed to stabilizing the international commodity market.
Service trade has accelerated. In recent years, international trade and investment have shown a new trend, and China's foreign trade has entered a new stage. The domestic and international economic and trade environment requires China to change its foreign trade development model, promote the accelerated upgrading of foreign trade, and vigorously promote the development of service trade. Since 2016, China's service trade has maintained rapid growth. The export structure was further optimized; the import and export of services in the pilot areas of service trade innovation was good. In the first half of the year, the State Council approved the import and export of service trade in 15 provinces, municipalities and regions, which accounted for 47.5% of the total. The annual increase was 0.8 percentage points.
The world trade environment in 2017 is not optimistic
For the international economic environment, the economy is in the stage of deep adjustment after the crisis. The main engines that promoted world economic growth before the financial crisis have entered the shift period, and the global economy lacks new growth points. In the eight years since the crisis erupted, the average global GDP growth rate was only 3.5%, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than the five years before the crisis. The long-term downturn in the world economy stems from multiple factors such as lagging structural reforms, insufficient effective demand, and declining production efficiency. In 2017, the growth momentum brought by the last round of scientific and technological revolution has gradually declined. A new round of technological innovation has not yet formed an effective driving force, and the world economy is still unable to shake off the deep impact of the financial crisis.
As an important engine of economic growth, trade and investment are becoming more and more important. However, in recent years, the global trade and investment situation has been sluggish. The World Trade Organization predicted in September that world trade in 2016 and 2017 will be in an extremely difficult growth phase. UNCTAD forecasts that global investment growth in 2016 will fall by 10% to 15%. Weak world economic recovery, sluggish international market demand, frequent black swan incidents, prevalence of trade protectionism, and the divergence of monetary policy among countries will curb world trade growth in 2017. First, the trend of globalization has weakened. Due to insufficient demand in the world market, trade protectionism measures in major developed economies and some developing countries are increasing. According to relevant data, from 2008 to May last year, G20 members adopted a total of 1,583 trade restrictions, and so far only canceled the contract. 25%, there are still 1196 items in progress. According to the G20 Trade Investment Measures Report issued by the WTO, OECD and UNCTAD, the average monthly new trade restrictions imposed by G20 members in the past year have reached the highest level since 2009. Second, the uncertainty of global trade investment has increased. The Brexit will go through the referendum to the actual retreat for several years, and the uncertainty brought about by it will be further observed. The Brexit process does not rule out accidents and may have a huge impact on international market sentiment and expectations, causing turmoil. At the same time, terrorist attacks by European refugees have frequently occurred, affecting the confidence of global consumers and investors, and have interfered with the normal operation of international trade, investment and financial markets, and have a negative impact on the future international economy.
At present, risks such as high leverage and high bubbles in the international financial sector are still gathering, and financial market turmoil is increasing and instability is increasing. First, there are obvious signs of uncoordinated international financial markets. The British referendum decided that Brexit had a serious impact on the international financial market. On that day, the world's major stock indexes fell sharply by more than 5%. The Brexit vote dropped more than 10% on the next day, and the London stock market fell 8.7%. However, under the influence of the central banks' strong influence, the international capital market has injected a strong shot, and the main index rebounded rapidly. The Bank of International Settlements believes that the relevant market has become dysfunctional. For example, bond yields continue to fall, but the yield curve tends to be equal. The international financial market is increasingly dependent on central banks. Second, global credit is weak. The strong US dollar exchange rate, the sluggish emerging markets and the increased uncertainty in financial markets have hit credit demand. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the current dollar-denominated bank loans for debtors outside the US have fallen year-on-year, the first time since the outbreak of the international financial crisis; Euro loans to non-Eurozone debtors have seen their first decline since 2014, reflecting a new round of weakness in the eurozone banking sector; dollar loans to emerging markets are also contracting. The third is the differentiation of monetary policy in major economies. The United States started the rate hike process, and countries such as Europe and Japan continued to implement quantitative easing. The spillover and spillover effects caused by the divergence of global monetary policy have become increasingly prominent. The risks of abnormal flow of cross-border capital and large fluctuations in financial markets have gradually expanded and deepened. International financial market turmoil will further increase the uncertainty of global trade recovery.
After the financial crisis, in order to get rid of the domestic economic downturn, countries have strengthened their competition and penetration of the international market, and international trade rules have become fragmented. Global trade integration results marked by international institutions such as the WTO are eroded, trans-Pacific (5.060, 0.02, 0.40%) partnership (TPP), transatlantic (5.570, 0.05, 0.91%) trade and investment partnership (TTIP) The future of regional trade organizations such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is uncertain. The original trade rules represented by the WTO were gradually broken, and new international trade, investment, and service standards were being established. This process involves the game and confrontation of the major countries of the world, showing a long and repetitive character. On the one hand, in order to maximize the economic interests of the developed countries, the developed countries intend to gain more benefits in the international market by changing the original international rules and promoting the comprehensive upgrading of standards in trade, investment, and finance. On the other hand, competition between countries has become more intense, and coordination of interests has become more difficult. For example, in September 2016, a number of senior French officials, including President Hollande, said they would suspend authorization to the EU and unilaterally withdraw from the United States. The European Free Trade Agreement negotiations, the German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy also publicly stated that "the TTIP negotiations have actually failed." The new US President Trump proposed to withdraw from the TPP negotiations. The reshaping of the international trade and investment system will profoundly affect China's further participation in the globalization process and the foreign trade environment it faces in the future.
For the domestic economic environment, the Chinese economy is in the "new normal" development stage. After nearly 40 years of reform and opening up, China's comprehensive national strength has been continuously improved. It has become the world's second largest economy, the largest trading country and the largest manufacturing country. According to the World Economic Forum's 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Report, China ranks 28th out of all 138 economies and once again becomes the most competitive economy among the emerging economies of the world. This shows that China's comprehensive competitiveness in terms of economic strength, human resources, industrial maturity, business environment, infrastructure, and international attractiveness is among the highest in the world and emerging countries (China is ranked 39th among other major emerging economies). Position, Russia ranked 43rd, South Africa ranked 47th, Brazil ranked 81st).
Due to the current potential growth level of China's economy, the demographic dividend has gradually subsided, the open spillover effect has been weakened, and labor productivity has declined. The pressure of macroeconomic growth in 2017 is still relatively large. In the demand side, due to factors such as limited social new capital, slower growth of household income, and weak overall expectations, investment and consumer demand continue to weaken; the supply side is undergoing structural reforms such as de-capacity, deleveraging, and cost reduction. Under the effect of effective effect, the efficiency of the enterprise will rebound and the production end is expected to achieve stable operation. It is expected that the growth rate of the national economy in 2017 will be slightly slower than that in 2016.
The medium- and long-term stable operation of the RMB is relatively stable. First, on October 1, 2016, the RMB officially joined the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. Some international financial organizations, overseas central banks and other overseas policy institutions and financial institutions will gradually increase the allocation of RMB bond assets, thus bringing A certain amount of capital inflows will help stabilize the exchange rate in the future and will further enhance China's international voice. Second, China's international balance of payments has maintained a long-term surplus, abundant foreign exchange reserves, stable financial market operations, and good macro-financial conditions. The economic fundamentals have determined that there is no long-term depreciation basis for the RMB. The exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies has remained at a reasonable and balanced level, which is conducive to the smooth operation of China's foreign trade import and export.
Since the 18th National Congress, the State Council has issued more than 10 policy documents to promote the steady growth of foreign trade, and four related documents on foreign cultural trade and the implementation of the free trade zone strategy. Foreign trade support documents aim to stabilize trade growth, regulate trade structure, transform trade patterns, and foster new advantages in trade competition. The main aspects of the policy include improving the export tax rebate sharing mechanism, increasing credit support, supporting insurance institutions to expand insurance coverage in accordance with commercialization principles, reducing corporate burdens, improving trade facilitation, accelerating the development of new foreign trade formats, and exploring the establishment of the “six systemsâ€. The two platforms are the core cross-border e-commerce policy system. Under the implementation of all levels of departments and governments at all levels, the progress of export tax rebate has accelerated, the penetration rate of short-term export credit has increased to 17.8%, the burden on import and export enterprises has been significantly reduced, and the proportion of paperlessness in customs clearance has increased to 95%, 13 across The comprehensive e-commerce test area was completed, the gradient of processing trade was accelerated, and the tariff level of related products was further reduced. The full coverage of foreign trade support policies is conducive to promoting the growth of China's foreign trade in the future.
At present, China's foreign trade development is subject to dual constraints from emerging countries and developed countries. The export of traditional labor-intensive products and investment products represented by machinery and equipment has declined to varying degrees. With the increase of China's factor cost and resource environment constraints, the cost of traditional labor-intensive export commodities continues to rise, and the comparative advantages in terms of price and other aspects are weakened. Compared with neighboring developing countries, wage costs and environmental costs are obviously not dominant. At the same time, export products such as high-end equipment and smart manufacturing are facing competition from developed countries, and it is still difficult to quickly occupy the international market. In the short term, new foreign trade growth points have not yet formed.
In 2017, the world economy is still difficult to shake off the sluggish growth. The traditional comparative advantage of “Made in China†has gradually weakened, and the overall situation of China’s foreign trade development is still not optimistic. However, the “One Belt and One Road†and international capacity cooperation strategies have been accelerated, especially the large increase in foreign investment is expected to drive some exports of goods; the stable exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate will help to increase export competitiveness. In 2017, China’s foreign trade exports fell by about 5%, and imports fell by about 7%.
Strengthening the cultivation of new growth points for foreign trade
In view of the current downturn in world trade and the major difficulties in China's foreign trade, the author suggests to further strengthen the cultivation of new growth points for foreign trade, accelerate the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy, and promote trade development through foreign investment.
Cultivate new growth points in the trade of goods. First, to adapt to the rapid development of the Internet, big data, and intelligent manufacturing, select Smart Home appliances, smart phones and other products as the key products for the future export of China's goods, and vigorously support them through policy guidance, fiscal and tax support, and innovation subsidies. Second, encourage enterprises to actively implement the “going out strategyâ€, build an international marketing network, increase government financial support, play the role of the Canton Fair and other platforms, strengthen economic and trade exchanges, industrial cooperation, carry out park construction exchanges, and promote foreign trade from quantitative expansion to quality improvement. To consolidate the status of a major trading nation.
Support the emerging business of foreign trade. Vigorously implement the strategy of foreign trade superiority and superiority, the strategy of circulation upgrading, and the strategy of integration of domestic and foreign markets, accelerate the development of new trade formats such as foreign trade integrated service enterprises, cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses, and market procurement models, and improve the efficiency of traditional trade. First, promote cross-border e-commerce construction, strengthen the construction of relevant systems for business customs clearance service platforms, improve the electronic payment management system, accelerate the development of cross-border e-commerce logistics services, promote the development of cross-border e-commerce industry clusters, and enhance the level of cross-border e-commerce cooperation. . The second is to encourage the development of key cross-border e-commerce enterprises, attach importance to new modes of new foreign trade industry alliances, conform to the development trend of foreign trade industry, and build an integrated electronic information platform for procurement, production and service with service enterprises as the core. The third is to build a new "integration of domestic and foreign trade" system, foster a combination of domestic and foreign trade, business models and internationally integrated commodity trading markets, and hold large-scale exhibitions with strong international influence in major regional trade centers to support enterprises in building overseas marketing and payment. Settlement and warehousing logistics network.
Drive the export of related goods and services with the help of the “Belt and Road†strategy. First, promote the orderly flow and rational allocation of various resources and elements, stimulate the vitality and potential of various enterprises, support the cooperation of major engineering projects in key areas such as high-speed rail and nuclear power, and promote the export of related equipment manufacturing and other commodities. Second, in combination with the development needs of Chinese enterprises, further increase policy innovation, service innovation and regulatory innovation, strengthen enterprises to enhance product quality, brand, technical service level awareness, actively create new foreign trade growth points, increase product added value, to new The competitive advantage and business model improve the ability to develop international markets.
National Information Center experts: The world trade environment is not optimistic in 2017
Abstract Since 2016, world economic growth is difficult to shake off the doldrums, the global recovery difficult, increasing external uncertainties; traditional domestic foreign trade advantages to gradually weaken the emerging competitive advantages are intended to form, China's foreign trade remain weak run. Looking forward to 2017, the world...
Since 2016, the world economy has been unable to shake off the sluggish growth, the pace of global recovery has been difficult, and external uncertainty has increased; the domestic traditional foreign trade advantage has gradually weakened, emerging competitive advantages have yet to be formed, and China's foreign trade has remained weak. Looking forward to 2017, the world economic growth momentum is insufficient, the external demand improvement is limited, and the domestic macroeconomic downward pressure is relatively large. The import and export situation of China's foreign trade is still difficult to improve significantly. However, the G20 consensus will be gradually implemented, the RMB will be added to the SDR, and the foreign trade support policy will be effective, which will support the smooth operation of foreign trade. The author suggests that the next step is to speed up the transformation of trade development mode, strengthen the construction of the “Belt and Roadâ€, guide and encourage the development of new trade formats, and promote China's foreign trade to improve quality and efficiency.