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Global trade volume increased by 0.4% in October
Abstract A monthly report released by the Netherlands Economic Policy Research Bureau on the 21st highlights that global trade volume rose for the second month in a row in October, signaling an acceleration in the global economy. According to foreign reports, the Dutch institute's data shows that global trade increased by 0.4% in October, following a 0.7% rise in September — with the September figure later revised upward to 0.8%.
The report indicates that the recent growth in trade is primarily driven by developing economies. While imports from emerging markets have surged, those from developed nations have remained stagnant. On the export side, developing countries are performing closer to their long-term averages, while exports from developed economies have declined.
In October, imports from Asian developing economies rose by 3.1%, Central and Eastern European countries saw a 3.6% increase, Latin America recorded a 1.6% rise, and Middle Eastern and African countries experienced a 2.3% growth. Meanwhile, U.S. imports fell by 2.8%, and Japanese imports dropped sharply by 9.6%.
The Dutch Economic Policy Research Institute’s global trade volume index is one of the earliest indicators used to assess global trade activity, and it is closely watched by policymakers and central banks around the world.
Looking ahead, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that developed countries' goods exports will grow by 1.5% in 2012, while developing countries are expected to see a 3.5% increase. In 2013, global trade volume is projected to rise by 4.5%, still below the historical average of 5.4% over the past two decades.
According to a report from HSBC Holdings, even with a slowdown in global economic growth, widespread trade protectionism is unlikely. Instead, global trade is expected to recover modestly in 2013. The report predicts that growing commercial activities among emerging economies could push global trade growth to about 5% next year. From 2014 to 2016, trade expansion is anticipated to reach between 6% and 7% annually.