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EIA and IEA cut crude oil demand growth forecast
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have both revised their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth downward in their latest March reports. Despite a 16-year low in U.S. crude oil demand in 2012, the EIA now anticipates a modest rise in U.S. liquid fuel consumption over the next two years. This reflects ongoing shifts in energy consumption patterns and increased efficiency.
In its March report, the EIA reduced its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2013 by 40,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels, and lowered its 2014 forecast by 10,000 barrels to 1.4 million barrels. Even with these reductions, overall demand is still expected to grow, driven largely by rising consumption in China.
China’s strong economic growth continues to be a major factor in global oil demand. The EIA projects that global oil demand will increase by 1.1% in 2013, with China accounting for nearly half of this growth. Daily oil demand in China is expected to rise by 450,000 barrels, representing a 4.4% increase. In 2014, global oil demand is projected to reach 91.53 million barrels per day, up 1.6%, with China’s demand increasing by 510,000 barrels per day to 11.19 million barrels, or 4.8%.
The EIA also adjusted its outlook for non-OPEC oil production. It reduced the 2013 forecast for non-OPEC output growth by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels, but raised the 2014 projection by 10,000 barrels to 1.44 million barrels.
The IEA similarly cut its 2013 global oil demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 90.6 million barrels per day, and reduced its 2013 demand growth estimate by 20,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels. Despite these cuts, the agency still expects steady growth, particularly in emerging markets.
OPEC’s supply rose in February due to higher output from Iraq, while Saudi Arabia faced production cuts. Non-OPEC supply in 2013 was raised to 54.5 million barrels per day, reflecting increased U.S. production.
On the price front, Brent crude remains around $110 per barrel, but the EIA forecasts an average of $80 per barrel for 2013 and $101 for 2014. U.S. crude prices are expected to average $91.92 in 2013, slightly below its previous forecast.
The EIA also noted that the gap between Brent and WTI crude prices is expected to narrow, with the spread dropping to around $9 per barrel in 2014, compared to $16 in 2013.
U.S. liquid fuel demand has declined significantly since 2005, reaching a low of 18.6 million barrels per day in 2012. However, the EIA predicts a slight recovery in 2014, with daily consumption reaching 18.7 million barrels. Domestic production is expected to surpass imports for the first time since 1996, marking a key shift in the U.S. energy landscape.