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EIA and IEA cut crude oil demand growth forecast
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have both revised their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth in their latest March reports. Despite a 16-year low in US crude oil demand in 2012, the EIA now anticipates a modest rise in liquid fuel consumption over the next two years. This shift reflects evolving market dynamics and changing consumption patterns.
In its March report, the EIA reduced its 2013 global crude oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels, while also lowering the 2014 forecast by 10,000 barrels to 1.4 million barrels. Although the pace of growth has slowed, total demand is still expected to increase, driven largely by China’s rising energy needs.
China is set to be a key driver of global oil demand, with an expected increase of 450,000 barrels per day in 2013—accounting for nearly half of the world’s new demand. This represents a 4.4% rise. In 2014, China’s oil demand is projected to grow by another 510,000 barrels per day, reaching 11.19 million barrels per day—a 4.8% increase. Global demand for oil is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2013 and by 1.6% in 2014, reaching 91.53 million barrels per day.
The EIA also adjusted its outlook for non-OPEC oil production. It cut its 2013 forecast by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels, but raised its 2014 projection by 10,000 barrels to 1.44 million barrels. Meanwhile, the IEA reduced its 2013 global oil demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 90.6 million barrels per day, and lowered its 2013 growth estimate by 20,000 barrels to 820,000 barrels per day.
OPEC’s crude supply rose in February due to increased output from Iraq, which climbed by 170,000 barrels per day to 3.14 million barrels. Saudi Arabia’s production cuts were offset by other members’ increases, leading to a total OPEC supply of 30.49 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply in 2013 was also boosted, reaching 54.5 million barrels per day, thanks to higher US output.
Looking at prices, Brent crude remains around $110 per barrel, but the EIA expects the 2013 average to drop to $80 per barrel, with a slight recovery to $101 in 2014. US crude prices are also expected to decline slightly, from $92.81 in February to $91.92 in 2013.
Additionally, the EIA predicts that the price gap between Brent and WTI crude will narrow. The average spread is expected to fall to $16 in 2013 and further to $9 in 2014, due to improved pipeline capacity from the Gulf of Mexico to refineries.
US liquid fuel demand dropped significantly from 20.08 million barrels per day in 2005 to 18.6 million in 2012. Crude oil demand fell by 2.08% in 2012, marking the lowest level since 1996. However, the EIA forecasts a small rebound in 2014, with daily consumption reaching 18.7 million barrels. At the same time, US crude production is expected to surpass imports for the first time since 1996, hitting 7.5 million barrels per day in October.